After a few years of peace in the long-running conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea, the two sides are once again stockpiling weapons, with fears that war could break out at any moment.
Following the agreement reached by the two countries to end the long-running conflict in 2018, Eritrean forces supported Abiy Ahmed’s government in its war with the TPLF forces in Tigray region from 2020 to 2022, with thousands of Eritrean troops entering the region.
Eritrea was angered after it was not included in the agreement reached in Pretoria between the Ethiopian government and the TPLF on November 2, 2022. Eritrea saw itself as an unintended agreement, as it was part of the war, and saw the TPLF group as a threat, which was once again given the leadership of Tigray region.
A long-standing territorial dispute between the two countries has resurfaced. After Eritrea seceded from Ethiopia in 1993, it fought a bloody war with Ethiopia over a territorial dispute from 1998 to 2000. As it was not a party to the Pretoria peace agreement, the territorial dispute was never formally resolved. Eritrean troops were also ordered to leave Tigray, which Asmara did not approve.
After the maritime agreement between Ethiopia and Somaliland was signed in early 2024, Asmara’s opposition to Ethiopia’s maritime rights was exposed. Eritrea, which was unhappy with Ethiopia’s access to the Red Sea, immediately allied itself with Egypt and Somalia, which opposed the agreement, which renewed the hostility between the two countries.
The risk of war has also been heightened by the split in the TPLF party that was given control of the Tigray region, with new fighting between rival factions. There are fears that the Ethiopian and Eritrean governments could side with these factions, which could lead to a protracted conflict.
Finally, the resumption of transport between the two countries in 2018 has come to a halt, with Asmara banning Ethiopian Airlines flights, and both sides have put their forces on high alert, with large numbers of troops massed along the border. This has heightened fears of another war.
